hurricanesfandomcom-20200216-history
Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
August Week 3 AoI: Another Day, Another (African) Wave Excuse the length of the title, but it does appear another wave is ready to come off of the coast, and not only that, but a few models develop an Invest-equivalent low, with practically all of them putting something in the Central Atlantic. I'm not exactly sure if this is really that big, but the convection on land does look promising. 68-100-190-56 13:36, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :I don't see anything of interest out there, but if there is a low with any convection with it and the conditions are as good a NHC is saying they are for Dean, then I could see something forming. -- SkyFury 15:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::This might just be a problem with the models, but I'm not sure (every single one develops it into at least a low, not necessarily closed off, but a low), since it would be quite a coincidence. I would, however, suspect than anything there would have somewhat of a chance of forming. 68-100-190-56 15:29, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::GFS turns it into a hurricane after Dean's second landfall. Link. 68-100-190-56 11:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Doesn't seem too likely, it develops it at a record low latitude. Cyclone1(14:45 UTC -16/08/2007) It doesn't, does it? But other models develop it higher. I'm not sure the low would track that far south anyway. It certainly is possible though. 68-100-190-56 16:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :CMC runs it into Georgia/Carolinas as a hurricane, developing much higher. Still can't figure out what it's developing though. 68-100-190-56 17:21, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I'm going to make a few enters here so that the next post will stand out, ok? That's better Anyway, the wave is now looking pretty nice, with the low still mostly separate. It's been looking good for a while now, but I haven't been paying attention. CMC predicts a cyclone from the low and the wave, but the wave shows now signs of development besides impressive convection, so I'm not sure what kind of drugs it's on this time. 68-100-190-56 21:23, 17 August 2007 (UTC) ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE E ATLC ALONG 32W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SURROUNDING LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...ESPECIALLY FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 16N32W. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-34W...WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE S OF THE ITCZ. They're wrong about the convection thing, by the way. IP 01:05, 18 August 2007 (UTC) :Mention in the TWO. Looks like nothing. Cyclone1(21:02 UTC -19/08/2007) ::THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Hmm.. latest TWO is more interesing. Cyclone1(21:35 UTC -19/08/2007) :::Hmm. That's slightly disconcerting. If that countinues, it will probably be more the lack of information than any bad news. It could develop, it could be nothing. There's just no way to know. We just have to wait and see. -- SkyFury 22:14, 19 August 2007 (UTC) 92L.INVEST That blob of thunderstorms east of the Bahamas. Anyway, shear is becoming lower, so it does have some potential to develop. No surface low right now, but one could potentially form later this week. Cainer91 14:27, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :50% bet that Felix would could out from this blob... RoswellAtup 15:02, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::Good chance of Felix, but also probably a fishspinner. 69.86.16.159 17:24, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::TCFA issued. 10 bucks says we get Felix outta this. Cyclone1(18:14 UTC -20/08/2007) :::Please let it head for the Carolinas. We need rain badly. 4.152.3.6 20:16, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Don't get too excited, there's not even a low pressure center around this thing and Lord knows we don't need a hurricane down here, just a rainstorm to cool us off. -- SkyFury 20:21, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::::There most certainly is a low pressure, albeit broad. It's forecast to head NW, then W, then SW, then into Florida. SHIPS takes it to 70kts. Cyclone1(20:40 UTC -20/08/2007) ::::::It also has an anticyclone over it. Conditions are perfect. Cyclone1(20:46 UTC -20/08/2007) :::NHC's surface analysis says no low exists. -- SkyFury 21:03, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::::That analysis is nearly 12 hours old. Cyclone1(21:33 UTC -20/08/2007) I think we're splitting hairs here. The point is it's not much and I have heard nothing from NHC saying there's a low pressure. It could develop, but it will be at least this weekend before that happens, it's just too disorganized to get anywhere fast. -- SkyFury 21:51, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :Danger area. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203526.shtml?basin#contents Cyclone1(22:44 UTC -20/08/2007) ::Yep, we may have Felix on our hands soon. - Enzo Aquarius 23:11, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::I still don't think we'll have anything to worry about until at least Friday. -- SkyFury 23:32, 20 August 2007 (UTC) Worsening conditions. No more danger area. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:25, 21 August 2007 (UTC) Gone. Cyclone1(20:25 UTC -21/08/2007) :You were saying something about a Felix? -- SkyFury 21:05, 22 August 2007 (UTC) ::Uh.. err... well you see... uh.. Oh, shut up! "Informal Betting for Strongest 2005 storm name: Lee- HurricaneEric" Hah! Cyclone1(02:03 UTC -23/08/2007) :::Cute. I made that bet over two years ago, Cyclone1. -- SkyFury 22:24, 23 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I was just making a joke, dude. I know there's know way you could have predicted the strength of Lee before the season started. And several models were calling for the development of a storm from 92L at the time, so you can understand my prediction. Cyclone1(00:55 UTC -24/08/2007) :::::Suuure you were...;) -- SkyFury 17:04, 25 August 2007 (UTC) Week 4 AoI: Extratropical cyclone west of Azores You guys gotta see thins thing! http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/GOES15452007237xFin2R.jpg It looks like a the beginning of several extratropical-origin hurricanes I've seen. (Noel, Perfect Storm, Vince, Epsilon etc.) No mention from the NHC, but this cyclone should be remembered! Cyclone1(17:38 UTC -25/08/2007) :It has a low-level rotation to it. I emailed the NHC asking what they thought about it (since it's not even in the TWD). I'll post the response if I receive one. Cyclone1(18:01 UTC -25/08/2007) ::It wasn't mentioned in the TWD because, well, it's not tropical. And, the water it's over is only 20-22 degrees. Even Epsilon had warmer temperatures than that. If it does become a freak of nature and make the transition, I will eat my words, but as of right now, I can't see anything (sub)tropical coming from this. Cainer91 20:33, 25 August 2007 (UTC) :::It's just a frontal system. Most occluded lows have LLCs.--Coredesat 00:41, 26 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Yeah, I spotted that one about two days ago. It's certainly an extratropical system, but a very impressive one. -- SkyFury 00:39, 27 August 2007 (UTC) It's impressive signature has fallen apart. Dead. I would post an image of it this morning, but I can't seem to access GIBBS. When I click on a time, all I get is a link saying "Satellite Image." Oh well... Cyclone1(02:06 UTC -27/08/2007) 06L.Felix AoI: Wave coming of Africa Again. This one actually looks a bit like Pre-Dean. It has a 1003 low associated with it, so it already has one foot out the door. Then again, it could just go poof like the last one. Shear is 20-30 knots off the coast, so it'll probably have to wait until the Central Atlantic to really develop. Cainer91 01:50, 26 August 2007 (UTC) :It'll be slow to form. Cyclone1(16:55 UTC -26/08/2007) ::I don't see squat out there, just a few showers. If it's developing, it'll be in the Pacific. -- SkyFury 00:45, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :Well, according to the 10:30 TWO, some slow development is possible. It lost it's low pressure center since it came off Africa, though, so it'll have to work to develop. Here's a picture of it right now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg. Cainer91 18:11, 27 August 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST FRESH FROM THE NAVY SITE... http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi, I'm giving it a 30% chance in developing into Felix RoswellAtup 10:05 28 August 2007 (UTC) :Eh, I think this one will go the way of 99L. There's just too much dry air for it to develop. If it can start building convection it may have a chance, but right now it's not looking so good. Cainer91 17:49, 28 August 2007 (UTC) ::Doesn't look great on GOES. The models seem mixed on this, but only two really make something out of it (CMC and HWRF). I would say this is not Felix (or TD 6). IP 19:32, 28 August 2007 (UTC) :::NHC says conditons appear favorable for "some development" over the next few days. -- SkyFury 20:37, 28 August 2007 (UTC) ::::It needs to gain convection before I starting betting ten bucks on a Felix. I've learned my lesson. That Caribbean blob looks better than 94L. (Cyclone1 logged out) 02:37, 29 August 2007 (UTC) Looks like random convection to me :|. IP 23:09, 29 August 2007 (UTC) :Recent update says it could make depression by Saturday. I don't get it, but the NHC really, REALLY likes this little guy. IP 17:04, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::W-underground says a SHIPS run ended in a 98 knot storm at 120 hours. IP 17:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Recon flying tomorrow. Cyclone1(21:34 UTC -30/08/2007) Looks like there's nothing between this and TD6, but we shouldn't speak so soon, should we? IP 21:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Look at it now! Once the convection moves over the center, it will be time. IP 23:20, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::This thing also looks good. There are certainly a lot of stirrings out in the Atlantic. It's been a while since I've seen the TWO this long. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:27, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Grr... You stole MY point! ''I was going to say that. Hmph. :::Seriously though, three depression-like storms, two quite possibly become depressions soon? I think we can welcome in September, folks. IP 23:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::::(LOL!)...Tis the season. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::::... To be wary. ; ) IP 00:15, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::::::...Fa la la la la.... la la la laa. We could be song writers, guys. 'Cyclone1(00:50 UTC -31/08/2007) *brief chuckle* That was unnecessarily spontaneous. Bravo! IP 01:07, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Wow, this thing looks a lot better than it did when I looked at it about 6 hours ago! Bob rulz 02:57, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::A depression could form later this morning. Say hello to Felix. Haven't seen anything this good since... well, Dean! (two in a row, eh?) IP 11:03, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Special Disturbance statement from NHC. Recon flies in this afternoon to confirm a depression. I predict Felix, max cat 3, min cat 1. IP 13:22, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 06L.NONAME NRL's calling it 06L. Looks like the recon found a depression! --Patteroast (not logged in)/209.162.45.180 20:24, 31 August 2007 (UTC) You beat me to posting this! Gah! *Cyclone locks himself in his room to think about Patteroast and cry.* ''Cyclone1(20:33 UTC -31/08/2007) :Anyway, looking excellent, Felix by tonight, I'd say. 'Cyclone1(20:33 UTC -31/08/2007) ::It's almost five o'clock and I haven't heard a peep from NHC. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:45, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::They're speaking now. 'Cyclone1(20:50 UTC -31/08/2007) ::::yep and it looks like this is goign into the region where dean hit Jason Rees 20:56, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Tropical Depression Six Official. ''Cyclone1(20:50 UTC -31/08/2007) :Meh, even it does hit where Dean did, (which it looks to be going south of Dean) it'll be barely noticed compared to Dean. NHC is only calling for a category one. 'Cyclone1(21:02 UTC -31/08/2007) ::GODDANGIT! You beat me to it! I say stronger than Cat 1, don't see why not if it takes a dissimilar path than Dean. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:05, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::My personal prediction is that it'll reach hurricane status, but be just over Cat 2 status. - Enzo Aquarius 21:06, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::::The people over there are probably going "Please God, no!" Indeed, we could have another hurricane hitting the Yucatan area. Given what the NHC is giving us now, I'd say Enzo's assessment is a good one. Interaction with Hondurus could weaken it though. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:35, 31 August 2007 (UTC) You can always trust Eric to finish a sentence with "Please God, no!" and start the next one with 'indeed'. Seriously, though, that's probably spot on. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:52, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Do not question my superior diction! *muffled chuckle* Seriously, I'm a fiction writer, what else can I say? That weakening by Honduras could be a painful one. Remember, Fifi made landfall in Belize but killed 8,000 people in Hondurus. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:00, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::It probably won't be ''that bad. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:11, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Well, it all depends on landfall and angle. If it Ediths-out, then even a strong hurricane clipping the northeast coast wouldn't be a huge deal. But if it pulls a Fifi, or worse, a Mitch, by moving northeast of Honduras and then curving back west-south-westward. That's when the flooding starts. Just climatology speaking. Cyclone1(00:49 UTC -1/09/2007) Newest NRL image still has it tagged as Six, but the hover shows that winds are now 35kt. Isn't that enough for them to call it "Felix" now, or are they hoping to not repeat the 16E/Pilar debacle? Jake52 My island 08:46, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Tropical Storm Felix Nevermind, the 5 am update on NHC gives the depression the name and ups it to Tropical Storm strength. Predicted to become a hurricane, like another Felix before it (read: every one of them). Jake52 My island 09:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Yup, he's looking pretty good too. I really should've gotten up at five.... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 13:59, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::HWRF gives it a scary potential track... INTO THE GULF (gasps)... PAST JAMAICA (bigger gasps) RIGHT OVER KINGSTON (mass fainting) HIT RANGE COULD BE FROM HOUSTON TO NEW ORLEANS (audience death toll exceeds 700). Scary thought, but not likely (at this point). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:17, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Hard to say, that 4th/5th day track change to the northwest by NOAA could mean a northern-central impact in Mexico if it continues on past Belize. It's only the beginning of Felix though, anything could change. - Enzo Aquarius 14:46, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Felix is now predicted to become a Major Cat. 3 Hurricane in five days... RoswellAtup 14:57, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Expected to become a hurricane period in less than a day. :S - Enzo Aquarius 14:58, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::The first Seppy storm isn't a dud, so I'd probably say this season is a lot less dud-esque than I thought : ). It's already better (worse?) than 2006. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 15:24, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Well, if we go by last year's season, up to Florence there was only two hurricanes (Ernesto and Florence). Compared to this year, if Felix becomes a hurricane, it will be semi-par with last year (Except that Ernesto only made Cat 1 while Dean this year made it up to Cat 5). So far, 2007 has been more 'intense', per se, than 2006. - Enzo Aquarius 15:38, 1 September 2007 (UTC) And based on the average season, we still are above normal, and if we last through October (unlike 2006) and November (again, unlike 2006) we'll have much more. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 16:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Now at 999 hPa, and 70 mph winds. Looks like it'll be upgraded at five or eight. Say hello to the second hurricane of the season! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:48, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Damn, Felix is taking off. We're having us a friggin' tropical siesta down there. That pressure is high for a storm that's almost a hurricane. In the Caribbean, those pressures usually get down pretty low (Dean, Wilma, Gilbert, Mitch, Ivan, y'all know those guys). Can't say this is good news for anyone in the Caribbean. Dean's little brother is getting awfully angry down there. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:59, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::The pressure might be higher because it only recently developed, but that doesn't explain the windspeeds. I wonder what the forecast advisory will say. At this rate, it's a shoe-in for second major hurricane of the year. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) An old adage of mine could be holding up: BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:32, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Christ, man, you don't need to point it out! What if the people in the Honduras are watching us? (Imagine that scene). GFDL strong Cat 2, Ships strong Cat 3, and potential Gulf storm, as well as (hopefully not) a possible Fifi repeat. Beware indeed. BTW, it almost looks like a banding eye is trying to form. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:19, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::10 bucks this makes hurricane JUST before Henriette, and becomes more intense. Both are showing signs of development and a potential banding eye. Felix has higher winds, Henrietta has lower pressure. It's a race all right. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:39, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Mexico's getting attacked from both sides here. Felix doesn't look like it plans to play nice. It's fast turning ugly. Henriette's not going away and Felix could hit Belize as a four before it's all said and done. Felix as an eyelash away from a hurricane and could be upgraded at any time. The pressure's aren't dropping but the storm just keeps looking better and better on the satellite. With 98L out in the Atlantic, Dean earlier this year and now Felix, this season could be a Caribbean war. The United States has yet to see a storm stronger than 35 knots. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:06, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Jezum Craw! The first access I get to a computer and I see a possible hurricane?! Man, this year is kicking up... 'Cyclone1(22:26 UTC -1/09/2007) :THIS JUST IN! Recon just released a Vortex Data Message saying they have confirmed 77kt winds in the NE quadrant. Folks, we have a hurricane. ''Cyclone1(23:39 UTC -1/09/2007) Hurricane Felix Official as of 8pm. 'Cyclone1(23:51 UTC -1/09/2007) :Yup, batten down the hatches folks, here we go again. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:55, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :What's worse is that the Discussion for 5 pm (before Flying Felix was upped to Hurricane strength) mentioned a high possibility for this one to rapidly intensify. After what Dean did, that's not exactly the best thing you want to hear. Jake52 My island 00:20, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Under any circumstances that's not what you want to hear, unless it's out at sea. All four Felixs that have ever formed have now become hurricanes and only one of the other three wasn't a major hurricane. And he continues to look better organized every time I look at the floater imagery. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:08, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::If Felix does make Cat. 5 by landfall, this would make two Cat. 5/landfalls in a row. Going to be an interesting season if this happens. - Enzo Aquarius 01:30, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Somewhat doubt it, but in the tropics almost anything is possible, 2005 taught me that. I think it's going to be an interesting season regardless. 98L is looking awfully greedy out there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:34, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Uh oh! Rapid intensification underwent. Felix is now officially a higher-end category 2 and is predicted to hit Category 4 strength. This looks like it will get VERY ugly and PLEASE let's not get a re-Dean. It hasn't even been a month! Jake52 My island 09:06, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Underwent? It's still undergoing... We will probably have a category three by 11am. 'Cyclone1(12:23 UTC -2/09/2007) :::Nope, no category three yet, but 105, 980. Extremely high pressures... ''Cyclone1(14:43 UTC -2/09/2007) ::::Raw DVORAK number right now is 6.6. This equates to... 150 mph. However, pressure is abnormally high, so the winds are probably lower than that. It's definitely a Category Three, though. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 17:27, 2 September 2007 (UTC) It is also extremely small. Joan back in 88 was an abnormally small cyclone also, it had a well defined eye as a tropical storm. '''Cyclone1(17:33 UTC -2/09/2007) :Umm, Felix. Feeelix. Behave yourself, Felix. Naughty storms go to Hell. 90 knots and counting and it looks a hair better than that (95-100 I'd say). It's really close to South America. A 125-knot Category 4 approaching Honduras is not a situation I want to contemplate right now. The predicted track and intensity, as well as the size of the storm, reminds me a little bit of Iris in 2001 (which used the same name list) and also of Greta in 1978, neither of which were a lot of fun. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:51, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Major Hurricane Felix 125 mph. Pressure at 964. If anyone's keeping score, pressure fell 16mbar in 3 hours. 'Cyclone1(18:08 UTC -2/09/2007) :And winds rose 20kt. 130.64.137.61 18:09, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Recon flight found flight level winds of 132 knots, which equates to 140 mph. So, unless the NHC is in denial, Felix will be a Category 4 at 5:00. Felix's eye also has a stadium effect going on. |C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 19:25, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Recon also found a minimum pressure of 957. Felix is bombing. ''Cyclone1(19:30 UTC -2/09/2007) 140 MPH, 956 MB, Category 4 as of the 5PM update. It's gone from Category 1 to Category 4 in 15 hours ; from 2 to 4 in 6 hours. Impressive. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:51, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :(confliction) - Jesus Christ! 105-140 mph in less than 12 hours is obscene. A Category 5 passing right by Honduras is not a pleasant thought. Lest we forget, the last time that happened was a little guy named Mitch. This season is turning crazy. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 21:05, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Felix is predicted to move over a warm eddy in the Caribbean...Anita did something similar itself in the Gulf of Mexico...look what happened. Felix is really starting to freak me out. Jake52 My island 21:27, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Felix looks amazing on visible satellite, maybe even better than Dean. It's eye was 30 nm last night, but now it's only 12 nm, with a spectacular stadium effect. The last time there was a stadium eye in the Atlantic was Wilma. Not a good sign. The only thing that will hold it back from more rapid strengthening is an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, which will probably occur in the next 24 hours. But, then it has even warmer waters and perfect shear to deal with, so it could become even more powerful. Not a good situation, in any case. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 21:45, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Do you guys realize that if Felix is upgraded to a category five by 11pm, it will have gone from TS to category five in 24 hours? That's only been accomplished twice in world history. Forrest, and Wilma. ''Cyclone1(21:59 UTC -2/09/2007) 93L.INVEST http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Gulf of Mexico. Looks like it could very well spin up into something before landfall, but I'm NOT betting on ANYTHING, ANYMORE. 'Cyclone1(16:55 UTC -26/08/2007) :Window closing. It has less than 12 hours to develop. Cyclone1(22:07 UTC -26/08/2007) ::Needs more water. It's outta time. -- SkyFury 00:47, 27 August 2007 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Good chance of developing... RoswellAtup 02:12 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Not in the short term, sheer is high, but forcast to weaken. It's drifting south, maybe it'll form sometime on Friday. Cyclone1(22:23 UTC -29/08/2007) ::Just for archiving purposes, this is the low off the southeast coast. Cyclone1(22:36 UTC -29/08/2007) :::That looks kinda decent actually. Don't you think it's wierd that we've had only ONE hurricane so far? I think this season might be a bust (watch as 94 and 95 develop into hurricanes tomorrow as a direct result of my pessimism!). IP 23:12, 29 August 2007 (UTC) ::::A couple models develop this, though I question their accuracy. IP 23:29, 29 August 2007 (UTC) GFDL as a hurricane off to no-where, Alex style. IP 11:14, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Mmm.... Interesting... Anyone know what that thing to the northeast of it is? IP 11:18, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::CMC goes Dean-like, cat-4 in open ocean :0 IP 11:20, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Weakening, says the NHC. IP 13:18, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Dissipated. IP 16:56, 30 August 2007 (UTC) AoI: Central Caribbean Made the TWO and it said some slow development could occur. The upper level environment doesn't suck, but it's not ideal either. I find it more interesting, however, than the thing/nothing off Africa. If there's anything to watch out there, it's this. It has a well defined spin to the clouds but no LLCC, says NHC. Convection is also minimal. -- SkyFury 00:45, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :Could flare up tonight, we may have an actual player on our hands. Or a 94L that last for 12 hours like the last two INVESTS. Who knows? Cyclone1(02:01 UTC -27/08/2007) ::NHC seems less enthusiastic about it now. -- SkyFury 16:35, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :::Major super crazy convection flare! Looks like it will be 95L soon. (Cyclone1 logged out) 01:23, 29 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Meh, nevermind. Cyclone1(22:16 UTC -29/08/2007) "Major super crazy convection flare!" I will treasure that one :P. Anyway, I have no idea what you're talking about, could someone point it out to me?. IP 23:40, 29 August 2007 (UTC) :Haha, yeah I have my moments. I followed that with "Meh, nevermind" (which is another phrase I use a lot when my predictions don't come to fruition) because the convection moved inland. I'll probably say that at least 10 more times before the season ends. :P Cyclone1(21:44 UTC -30/08/2007) 96L.INVEST & 97L.INVEST prior to NHC confirmation Up on the NRL, and they actually look pretty good. Theres the thing near 95L and then the thing in the Bay of Champeche. Neither one is up at INVEST level on NHC, but they both (I believe) made the TWO. IP 11:57, 30 August 2007 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Up on NHC, and it looks really good. IP 13:17, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Wow, the NRL is going INVEST crazy! It looks pretty nice, but also looks like it's slowly missing its chance to develop. Cyclone1(20:43 UTC -30/08/2007) ::GFDL still makes it a hurricane, and SHIPS puts it at 57 knots. I'm not so sure. I give it a 40% chance (down from 60 earlier) IP 21:53, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Wow. It already has a very nice circulation, all it needs is deeper convection. That could happen tonight. Cyclone1(22:17 UTC -30/08/2007) It also could not happen tonight. I think, though, that it will form tomorrow night to the day after (perhaps sooner) and I give it a 70% chance of doing so. 40% chance before that. To clarify. That 40% is not for overall formation. IP 22:23, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :A valid point. However, it looks like it better happen soon. It's window is slowly closing. Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -30/08/2007) ::Hmmm... You might be right about formation tonight. It looks better than it did a half hour ago. IP 23:11, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::This thing really looks like it has an LLCC. Sure looks like a tropical depression to me. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:26, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Hey Cyclone1, do you think you might have your "TD 5 and 6" situation happen here in real life? It's a real possibility at this point. IP 23:35, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Somebody actually read my Hypothetical Hurricane season?! I'm flattered! I don't think so. Only one low, and my fake depressions formed from small mesoscale cyclones. Anyway, Eric. There is most definitely a LLCC. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png It is a TD by definition (kinda). BTW, nice signature! Wherever did you get the idea? Hehe. ;) 'Cyclone1(00:46 UTC -31/08/2007) ::I've been to the user pages of most of the people here. And scoured over them. I don't get Eric's. I don't think so either, but hey, the fact that there is about a point zero five or six percent chance that they'll form at the same time is interesting, eh? Ok, not really, but it is my way of telling you that I A) don't hate you and B) have lots of time on my hands. And yes, it's looking darn good. I wish there was more convection though, but the visible looked really good before sundown. IP 00:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Haha! Hey, you think you have a lot of time on YOUR hands? I'm the guy writing it! :P I like Eric's page. He's an excellent writer and I enjoy reading his long posts like that (such as the Gordon Rant, which has been taken down). Anyway, 96L and 94L could definitely form at the same time, just the reason I included 5 and 6 together was because they were so close together, and so similar in every detail. ''Cyclone1(01:05 UTC -31/08/2007) ::::Which one, his wikipedia page or his hurricane-wikia page? I like his wikipedia page. And you haven't updated that thing significantly since who knows when! You're still on 07L! I'm the one who has to stay here all day posting updates every half hour! And I never said Eric wasn't a good writer. Most of us here are. It's just his page kinda freaks me out. It's overbearing. Kinda. And I was referring to the... Whoa! We're having, like, multiple civilish arguments. I just noticed that. And by the td-5, td-6 thing, anyway, I'm sorry, it wasn't very clear; I meant that the NHC had trouble figgering out which came first, that's what I was referring to. Also, BTW, I think your page is the best in the category, simply because it's not by Allistor Moody (No offense to him, but 220 MPH winds? Cat 5 hit on DC? C'mon!). Now, let's talk about the INVEST! IP 01:14, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::::His Wikia page. Well written. Yeah I know, I never update it like I should. I'll get time one day. I don't think we're arguing, just light, off-topic conversation. On the 5-6 thing, gotcha. And thank you! I put a lot of effort in my HH's I'm one of the very few that actually uploads images. Alastor Moody does go overboard a lot, but I guess it's his freedom. And, ok yes. Invest. On topic, hooray. So uh... how about that 96L, huh? 'Cyclone1(01:25 UTC -31/08/2007) Holy geez! TCFA issued! Something new to discuss! Woo hoo! Cyclone1(01:29 UTC -31/08/2007) I was about to say it was waning! This is fantabulous (I never use that word in public???) (editconflicted)! That's some good INVEST, eh? IP 01:34, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Just goes to show you, you can't always trust the satellite. I'd say at this rate, a depression is likely, possibly by 11pm-5am. Cyclone1(01:39 UTC -31/08/2007) ::Aww, look at it! It's soooooo cute! Much better this morning. NHC seems less enthusiastic about it, but the TCFA is still there. IP 11:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::I think it's window has closed. Loss of centralized convection, with only cloud wisps available. It looks almost subtropical, but it's not. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:23, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::::TWO confirms this. I have a proclamation to make: THE END OF THE WEEK OF INVESTS HAS COME UPON US. THIS MARKS THE DISSIPATION OF THE LAST INVEST PRIOR TO SEPTEMBER. HERE WE GO GUYS, HERE WE GO. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:40, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 97L.INVEST I don't think it has enough water, but it does look pretty nice. IP 13:17, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Looking fair, I can see a possible depression out of this, maybe a 30% chance. Cyclone1(21:23 UTC -30/08/2007) ::I haven't seen it since 3:30, but it did look good. I give it slightly less, 20%. IP 21:54, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Dissipateding IP 11:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Nothing to see here... What the heck is that?! IP 23:57, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Umm, nothing that I see. I see 95L in the Bay of Campeche and some debris it left behind, but nothing to get excited about. What's this about? -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:13, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::I dunno... I saw something, I'm sure of that, but it's not there anymore... IP 00:23, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::It must've been that I saw it somewhere else... BTW, it's 97L. Whatever it was that I saw, it's nothing. IP 00:25, 31 August 2007 (UTC) AoI: 700 miles east-southeast of Cape Race I'm not kidding guys. The NHC has included this in the TWO, saying it has begun to develope some tropical characteristics. I have no idea what the &%$#@ they're talking about, but they say they're watching on the edge of their seats. I personally think it looks like your average low pressure system, not to mention that there has never, ever, ever, ever, EVER been a formation NEAR that area. IP 16:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :It's started to develop persistent deep convection around it's center, and is looking pretty good. I ''think (but don't quote me on this) that if this does develop into Subtropical Storm Felix/Gabrielle, it would be the most northerly forming storm on record. Go figure? Cainer91 19:48, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::I think, Cainer, you'd be right. I dunno what's up with it, it's interesting. Whoever did it, thanks for fixing the 'o', I didn't notice that (I'm an excessive shifter). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:06, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Do what?! Wow, that's awesome!! Looks like Epsilon! We could have a record setter on our hands, guys! Cyclone1(21:12 UTC -31/08/2007) Whoa, boy, calm down! It does look nice, but the SSTs aren't fabulous, and it still only barely has SOME Tropical characteristics. But hey, it's not like it's not interesting! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:15, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :You're right. It's just super crazy far north, and it looks that good. AND it's nearly stationary. So, add all this together = crazy Cyclone1. :P Cyclone1(21:24 UTC -31/08/2007) ::The convection around the center is a nice touch though. It's been flung around all day by the low. Surprised it has that much way up. So what are our odds? I guess 3% subtropical/very powerful extra-tropical and .2% tropical depression. 0% for higher than depression. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:28, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Wow, our percentages differ greatly. 65-75% Subtrop/tropical storm. 10% Hurricane. 0.2% Nothing. It is already stronger than depression strength. Cyclone1(21:37 UTC -31/08/2007) What?! Nobody told me of this! I'll revise! First option up 20%, second up 10%, third up 5%. I need to see this system do something significant before I go Cyclone1-ing (v. Overreacting to things. Lots of things.) ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:45, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Yeah man. Winds could be up to 70mph right now. Easily. (Cyclone1-ing. Haha, I like that.) Cyclone1(21:52 UTC -31/08/2007) :Ok, put them all up another 75%, special. Yeah, I think I'll add that to my dictionary. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:55, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::BTW, that's not adding 75%, that's adding 75% of the current values. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 22:16, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Dude! It looks like a Perfect Storm sequel up there! I'm not sure what kind of chance it has but a storm up there would be really cool. To my knowledge, a storm has never formed that far north, although plenty have come close. After a rough perusal of archives, Cesar in 1984 is the furthest north I saw. It formed at about 39 degrees north latitude. Of course, Hurricane Faith in 1966 stayed tropical past 60 north, so they've been up there. Faith came pretty close to hitting Norway as a tropical hurricane. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:47, 31 August 2007 (UTC) You can have non-tropical hurricanes?! Seriously though (I've said that about 12 times so far), it's a very interesting feature to watch, and yeah, it does kinda look like the Perfect Storm... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Yes you can have non-tropical hurricanes. They're rare, but they happen, most recently in 1979. There was also one in 1968. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Wouldn't those just be extraordinarily powerful Sub-Trops though? Because wouldn't a powerful Sub-Trop not have all the same characteristics as a hurricane, thus rendering it a non-hurricane? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:14, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Yes, they are still call subtropical storms. Even though they are rightfully hurricanes. This thing however, looks to be wanting to join the warm core family. (BTW, Eric, say your post on my wiki page, currently responding the top ten seasons of all time. Yeah, ten, I'm sick and bored and there's nothing on TV, and my computer won't acces YouTube right now. So yeah, 10) 'Cyclone1(00:24 UTC -1/09/2007) :::I love that. "Even though they are rightfully hurricanes". I'm keeping that one too ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 00:28, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Haha, I tend to give hurricanes human like qualities all the time. It's something you learn to ignore. XD Cyclone1(00:39 UTC -1/09/2007) :::::Oh yea! I was worried the talk pages were broken there for a little while, Cyclone1. I left several people messages and 24 hours later not one had responded. I was wondering if they had gotten through. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:28, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Looks like the door is closing for this dark horse. According to the latest TWO, it's looking less and less likely that we'll see anything coming from this system. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:48, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Ahh man. This one looked so awesome! I'm gonna go lock myself in my room to think about cold core storms, put on my favorite AFI cd, and cry... *runs away to be emo* 'Cyclone1(03:01 UTC -1/09/2007) ::Cyclone1, calm down...gimme the knife and turn off the My Chemical Romance CD ;D. There will be others, I guarantee you, there will be others. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:09, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Read the header. There will most likely never be a stationary storm with significant convection that is 700 miles east-southeast of Cape Race with potential for development. :::No, it'll be around 300 hundred miles. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 14:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::I'm better. I stopped singing "Iris" long enough to watch Felix. Not that that's not a good song... "And I Don't want the world to see me... cuz' I don't think that they'd understand..." Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -1/09/2007) :::::Hey, I like that song! There nothing emo about that, that really happens to people. How about Blue October's 'Into the Ocean': "Into the ocean end it all, into the ocean end it all (repeat five more times). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:42, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Haha, Love that song. But hey, I'll be just fine pretending I'm not. I'm far from lonely, and it's all that I've got. What's the worst thing I could say? "I've become so numb, that I can't feel you there,"? Pardon me while I burst into flames. I've had enough of the world and it's people's mindless games. I never said I lie and wait forever. I've got another confession my friend, I'm no fool. Hey, tell me what you thought about when you were gone and so alone.... If that sounded like mindless rambling, then we don't share the same taste in music. XD 'Cyclone1(02:38 UTC -2/09/2007) :Sorry, boredom. ''Cyclone1(02:38 UTC -2/09/2007) ::Pass the bong ;D -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 21:07, 2 September 2007 (UTC) September Week 1 98L.INVEST That new wave out in the Atlantic has gained a lot of convection and is now an invest. In fact, this thing already looks close to a tropical depression. Bob rulz 12:51, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :I wouldn't be surprised, looking at the models. The thing on top of the page had similar aspirations. And, it is SEPTEMBER. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Look at it... isn't it beautiful? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:11, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::I'm betting 40% chance for to become Gabrielle RoswellAtup 15:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::You know what? I'd up the stakes about 15%. This guy is looking pretty good. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 15:13, 1 September 2007 (UTC) SHIPS puts it at hurricane, cat 1+ [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:08, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :The last thing we need a Cape Verde party. Dean, Felix,... -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:35, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Floater's been put up. And look at the GFDL model, a hurricane as well. Imagine what could happen if it goes up the East Coast, or maybe a Frances-esque track. This is an unfriendly bout of Westerners. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:21, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Convection flaring close to the center of low pressure (there should be a word for that other than "center"). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:25, 1 September 2007 (UTC) HWRF goes ''eerily similar to Dean. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:30, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :NOAA is stating a possible formation in the next 48 hours. Dean, then Felix, and Gabrielle? We shall find out in the next day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 01:39, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Looking awfully ominous right now. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:46, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Or maybe not, it's looking less organized. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:50, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::It looks pretty terrible right now, but it's moving into an area of less shear, and the environment is a lot moister than when 94L came through, so I still think it has a chance to develop. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 02:19, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Because, you know, Felix already set to hit more or less the exact same area as Dean and at major hurricane strength wasn't bad enough news. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 06:10, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Any hope of this heading for the Carolina Coast? We need the rain badly. '''Other IP 06:55, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :It looks terrible right now. I don't see anything coming from this for a while. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:09, 2 September 2007 (UTC) AoI: Off Georgia Coast There's a low associated with a decaying frontal boundary, and could possibly develop into a topical depression. It's looks good at the moment, but we'll have to see if anything to worry about comes from this. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 17:22, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Wow, that is impressive. I didn't even notice it (eyes automatically drawn to the major hurricane in the carib). I can see a TD out of this... at least a 99L. ''Cyclone1(18:31 UTC -2/09/2007) ::Hey, that's my house! That's MY...house! Don't be comin' into my house uninvited ;D. It's headed east though and could develop. Time will tell. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 21:12, 2 September 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC) :Not as far as I know. Bob rulz 17:26, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Interesting models I don't know if this is important, but I found a very interesting Fujiwhara interaction on an eight day old CMC forecast. Link 68-100-190-56 16:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Edit - If anyone finds any really interesting models, it could be interesting to group them here. Here's one of four cyclones forming (again from CMC): Link 68-100-190-56 16:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 17:19, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::The most recent one turns Dean into a cat 5. 68-100-190-56 18:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I wouldn't rule that out. Bob rulz 18:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I would trust the CMC on that count at this point. 68-100-190-56 21:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Hmm... Sorry for the extra header, but we have plenty of them don't we? Anyway, there seems to be a (somewhat) consensus on the models that go out that far that in a few days, after this wave of Africa, we will have something tropical in nature. Check out the GFS and you'll see what I mean. Any ideas? IP 23:38, 29 August 2007 (UTC) Model predictions I remember last year seeing links to plots of model projections (on Wikipedia of course) for all invests. I can not seem to find the link, does anyone know what I'm talking about? -Runningonbrains 17:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Hmm... No, I don't remember that. What kind of format were they in? IP 18:16, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Model runs and Model plots. -- RattleMan 22:11, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Model sites Could some of you provide the model sites you use? It would be very helpful to quite a lot of us. Thanks, IP 23:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Here is a graphic model page that shows all the models at once. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif Just change the 96 in the URL to whatever the current invest is to see the model plots. 'Cyclone1'''(00:56 UTC -31/08/2007) ::Thanks. I've been there before, but frankly, I had no idea what it was ^-^' IP 01:16, 31 August 2007 (UTC)